Author Archives: tshields
Today WTI (US) oil stands some $8 cheaper than OPEC or Brent oil (North Sea). A hedge fund manager is predicting $140/bbl with a year (double the price of WTI plus) and Goldman Sachs is predicting not to reach $100/bbl this year. No one knows. But the EIA has just restated shale oil figures this year and it… Read More »
Half the USA rigs running today are running in the Permian basin. The Permian cannot do it all. Further, the rigs are seeking oil yet the Delaware and other parts of the Permian play are gas basins, not oil. The use of fracking and horizontal drilling is getting some oil, but these wells can quickly degenerate into mostly… Read More »
The environmentalists believe that carbon dioxide is so evil they are in a mad rush to develop electric vehicles (EVs) and replace all gas engines by 2035. I have news for them. EVs are not going to cut it. They have a lot of disadvantages. First, they are not all that green. The breakeven point considering all the… Read More »
The energy end game is unknowable. But let’s sum it up. Winter has been mild. This, not “renewables” has saved Europe so far. Further taking coal and nuclear plants out of mothballs is helping, not building more wind turbines and solar panels. The oil business collapsed when demand collapsed in early 2020. Gasoline prices jumped almost from the… Read More »
To show that drilling is concentrated in W. Texas, the graphic below shows where and how many rigs are running today. The “Permian” Basin shows to have more than half of all rigs today. Texas has 2/3rd of all rigs and they are producing mostly horizontal “unconventional” “liquids rich” oils – in other words, the oil is light… Read More »
After gasoline prices falling for weeks, that reversed with rise of 20¢ or more since July lows. But as I write mid-October oil prices have fell after the OPEC+ meeting to reduce production in the Middle East and Russia. This move is less than it appears in my opinion. OPEC is anticipating that the economy will go into… Read More »
The German word for cloudy windless winter days when neither solar nor wind are helping sustain the energy grid in Europe is Dunkelflaute – literally, “dark doldrums” or “dark lull”. A period in winter when the weakness of solar and wind become painfully clear. Also clear is that Europe is gaslighting themselves by not drilling their own gas,… Read More »
There are no extreme weather events that are outside the norm to be expected. Models predicted the coral whitening, yet today here, now…the coral extent around Australia is at an all time high. So the models predicted wrong. And the corals have went through this cycle for years. Wildfires are a fraction that of the 19th century in… Read More »
Almost all applications to the Arkansas Oil & Gas commission from the Fayetteville Shale were asking to extend shut in wells as temporarily abandoned, supposedly because prices were too low. With the highest prices in 15 years, that is no excuse. Today the Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission meets as I write this. They undoubtedly will rubber stamp… Read More »
An electric motor is about twice as efficient as a gas engine. Diesel engines are somewhat more efficient than gas but heavier as well. A typical 4 cyl engine weighs about 300#. A Tesla battery weighs 1200#. Also, the less efficient AC motor is in some E cars whereas the Model 3, for example, has a DC motor.… Read More »